The match between Newcastle United and Manchester City on January 13, 2024, presents an interesting analysis for betting purposes. Let's delve into various aspects to understand the dynamics at play:
Historical Head-to-Head and Recent Form
- Historical Encounters: In their recent encounters, Manchester City generally had the upper hand over Newcastle United. Out of 11 recent matches, Manchester City won 9 times, there were 2 draws, and Newcastle won once.
- Recent Form: In the lead-up to this match, Newcastle's form was shaky with 4 losses and 1 win in their last 5 matches. In contrast, Manchester City's form was strong, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games.
League Standings and Performance Stats
- Premier League Standings: Manchester City was placed 3rd in the league with 40 points, while Newcastle was 9th with 29 points.
- Goal Stats: Manchester City had a strong goal differential, with 45 goals for and 21 against. Newcastle's goal difference was less impressive, with 39 goals for and 29 against.
Betting Odds and Probabilities
- Odds: The odds favored Manchester City at 1.62, with a draw at 4.52, and a Newcastle win at 5.60.
- Probabilities: According to a prediction formula, there was a 50% probability of an away win (Manchester City), a 28% probability for a home win (Newcastle), and a 22% chance of a draw. The three most likely results were predicted to be 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), and 2-1 (7%) in favor of Newcastle.
Statistical Trends
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Newcastle had a 45% chance of both teams scoring (BTTS Yes) in their games, whereas for Manchester City, it was 63.2%. Conversely, there was a 55% probability for Newcastle and 36.8% for Manchester City for not both teams scoring (BTTS No).
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: For Newcastle, 65% of their games went over 2.5 goals, while for Manchester City, this statistic was 68.4%.
Betting Analysis and Recommendations
Given the available data and probabilities, the most likely outcome seems to favor Manchester City. Their superior league standing, recent form, and historical dominance over Newcastle suggest they are more likely to secure a win. Additionally, the high probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, considering both teams' trends, indicates a potentially high-scoring affair.
Recommended Bet: A Manchester City win seems the most likely outcome, especially given their recent form and historical advantage over Newcastle. Betting on over 2.5 goals could also be a viable option, considering the goal-scoring trends of both teams.
